Arkansas Derby goes to longshot Line of David

Horseracing Betting Lines

04/10/2010 - Hot Springs, AR (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Lightly-raced Line of David went wire-to- wire in capturing Saturday's $1 million Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park. The 1 1/8-miles was run in 1:49.37 over a fast track.

Sent off as a 17-1 longshot in the nine horse field, Line of David quickly took the lead coming out of the gate. He led the field around the clubhouse turn with 4-1 third choice Super Saver in second.

Running in third was 5-2 second pick Dublin with longshot Berberis fourth. Noble's Promise, the 9-5 favorite, was racing off the pace after being bumped at the start.

The top four runners kept their positions as the field went up the backstretch. Ridden by Jon Court, Line of David had the lead into the far turn and as the field entered the stretch.

Noble's Promise joined the leaders around the turn for home. Line of David, Super Saver and Dublin were three across the track at the top of the stretch. Super Saver and Dublin appeared to be ready to pass the pacesetter, but were unable to go by him.

As the top, three horses approached the wire. Line of David dug in to keep the lead. At the wire it was Line of David by a neck over Super Saver with Dublin another neck back in third.

"I tell you that we put him on the front end and rolled into that first turn and he was rolling along pretty good but he came back to me," Court said. "I was a little concerned because we were clipping along pretty good but we weren't losing any ground either. I was just right there in the one path tight against the fence around that first turn so I knew it went pretty quick. When I called on him he was full of run through the bridle and he fought very valiantly for the photo."

Uh Oh Bango made a late rally to finish fourth followed by Noble's Promise, New Madrid, Berberis, Pulsion and Northern Giant.

Line of David picked up $600,000 for owners Ike and Dawn Thrash. The purse is the first for the chestnut colt from any stakes race and should be enough to start the Kentucky Derby.

"I was telling Jon in the infield this one was kind of late to the party," noted Ike Thrash. "But he ran really well in his last couple races and even though we got around to it late we knew he could run and he showed up today."

Trained by John Sadler, Line of David was making his start outside of California and on a real dirt track. After breaking his maiden on the fourth attempt, the colt has now won three straight. He has career earnings of $662,000.

Sadler also trains Santa Anita Derby champ Sidney's Candy.

"We're really happy, the horse ran great," Sadler said. "We're setting up camp on Monday and Tuesday at Churchill, We have Sidney's Candy and Crisp and a few others, so we'll add this one to the list."

Line Of David paid $36.60, $14.80 and $6.80. Super Saver returned $6.20 and $4.00, and Dublin paid $3.60 to show.

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.