Flat Out returns in Clark Handicap at Churchill Downs

Horseracing Betting Lines

11/22/2011 - Louisville, KY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Defeated Breeders' Cup Classic favorite Flat Out makes a quick turnaround for Friday's $500,000 Clark Handicap at Churchill Downs. The 1 1/8-mile dirt race has attracted a solid field of 13.

Flat Out, trained by Scooter Dickey, will be ridden by Alex Solis from post six. The five-year-old is owned by Preston Stables and is the probable morning-line favorite.

Flat Out went off as the 7-2 favorite in the $5 million Classic at Churchill Downs on November 5. He broke from the inside post in the 12-horse field and raced in eighth for most of the 1 1/4-miles. Under Solis, the horse finished fifth just three-lengths behind the winner Drosselmeyer.

The five-year-old posted victories this year in the Suburban Handicap and Jockey Club Gold Cup. He was second in the Lone Star Park, Whitney and Woodward Handicaps and sixth in Churchill's Stephen Foster Handicap.

In 13 career starts, Flat Out has earned more than $1.2 million with five wins.

Belmont Stakes winner Ruler On Ice has drawn the rail post with Garrett Gomez getting the mount again. Owned by George and Lori Hall, the three-year-old colt is coming off a third-place finish in the Breeders' Cup Classic as a 17-1 longshot.

"I'm very happy to report that he came out of the race in good order and he's currently in great shape," trainer Kelly Breen said. "He's eating well and training well. He's a lean, mean fighting machine.

"We're thinking that if he wins this race then he is in the running for champion three-year-old. That would give us two Grade I wins and he would be beating older horses (in the Clark)."

Since winning the Belmont in June, Ruler On Ice was third in the Haskell, fourth in the Travers and runner-up in the Pennsylvania Derby. The colt has won three times in 11 career starts for better than $1.6 million.

Another highly regarded three-year-old entered is multiple stakes winner Prayer for Relief. The colt will be ridden by Rafael Bejarano from post 12 for trainer Bob Baffert and Zayat Stables.

Since returning to the races in May, Prayer for Relief has won the Iowa, West Virginia and Super Derbies and was third in the Oklahoma Derby. This year he has earned just under $1 million in five starts.

Here is the complete field for the Clark in post position order: Ruler On Ice, Garrett Gomez; Alma d'Oro, Jesus Castanon; Demarcation, Corey Lanerie; Stately Victor, Victor Lebron; Mission Impazible, Javier Castellano; Flat Out, Alex Solis; Pleasant Prince, J A Garcia; Headache, Edgar Prado; Mister Marti Gras, Rajiv Maragh; Will's Wildcat, Calvin Borel; Wise Dan, John Velazquez; Prayer for Relief, Rafael Bejarano and General Quarters, Jon Court.

Post-time for the Clark Handicap is set for 5:45 p.m. (et).

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.