05/15/2008 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Colorado Rockies starting pitcher Aaron Cook is responsible for 40 percent of his team's wins this season. Now raise your hand if you thought that would be the circumstance by mid-May.
If you did raise your hand then you're a liar because odds are Jeff Francis would have been the easy favorite. But that's not the case, at least so far this season, since last year's ace has yet to sniff a victory in the new campaign. Instead of Francis racking up the wins and breaking records early in the 2008 campaign, it has been Cook reveling in success.
Cook is 6-0 with a 1.90 earned run average in his last six trips to the mound. The six victories in six straight starts is a Colorado record, while Bill Swift, Pedro Astacio, Brian Bohanon and Jason Jennings each won five straight starts. Cook is 6-1 with a 2.26 ERA in eight total outings this season, and has pitched no less than six innings in each of those starts.
The right-hander certainly has caught the National League by surprise, especially after going 8-7 with a 4.12 earned run average in 25 appearances during the Rockies' run to the World Series in 2007.
"He's staying in a real good place in the game," Rockies manager Clint Hurdle said of Cook. "Obviously, the string is most impressive and might be as impressive as anybody we had here."
Colorado (15-25) hasn't had many aces come through the organization, but the sentiments from Hurdle are very flattering for the aforementioned pitcher. Cook will face his biggest test of the season on Thursday against Arizona Diamondbacks ace Brandon Webb. Webb is an impressive 8-0 through his first eight starts of the season.
Even though the team has struggled mightily this season, Cook has been much like Andy Dufresne from the movie 'The Shawshank Redemption.' Dufresne crawled through 500 yards of sewage to get away, sort of how Cook escapes the reality of losing on the mound for his ballclub. Dufresne came out clean as a whistle, which conveys exactly how Cook looks this year for a beleaguered ballclub that has lost four straight and 17 of its last 23 contests.
To stay on that losing note, Francis is sporting an 0-4 mark and a 6.27 earned run average in eight outings this season. He is 0-2 with a 6.52 ERA over his last five starts, including a terrible performance the previous time out on May 13 at Arizona. Francis lasted a season-low 4 2/3 innings and gave up a season-high eight runs and 13 hits in an 8-4 loss to the Diamondbacks. He began his career with a 7-1 record against Arizona, but has dropped his last four regular-season starts against the D'Backs.
The left-handed Francis is scheduled to take the mound again on May 18 versus the Minnesota Twins. Francis went 17-9 with a 4.22 earned run average in 34 starts during Colorado's run to glory a year ago.
ROCKIES MAKE A FEW ROSTER MOVES
The struggling Rockies have placed pitcher Ryan Speier on the 15-day disabled list because of a right shoulder contusion. The move is retroactive to May 12.
Speier, a right-hander, was injured on May 11 when he was struck by a line drive off the bat of San Diego's Tadahito Iguchi. He has a record of 1-1 with a 3.38 earned run average in 15 games this season.
Colorado then recalled lefty Josh Newman from Triple-A Colorado Springs to fill the vacant roster spot. Newman appeared in four games for the Rockies from April 25 through May 3, recording a 3.86 ERA with no record.
WHO'S HOT
Besides starter Cook, Rockies third baseman Garrett Atkins is riding a 12-game hitting streak in which he is batting .383 with a home run, five RBI and five multi-hit games. Atkins leads the ballclub with a .337 batting average, seven home runs and 26 RBI this season.
WHO'S NOT
Francis is an easy choice for this category, but so is first baseman Todd Helton. Despite his .305 batting average over the last 10 games, Helton has just 11 hits with no homers and two RBI over that span.
ON DECK
The Rockies are 10 games below the .500 mark for the first time since the end of the 2006 campaign. After it wraps up a six-game road trip on Thursday at Arizona, Colorado will open a nine-game homestand at Coors Field versus Minnesota, San Francisco and the New York Mets.
Colorado is 7-10 as the host in 2008, while toting an 8-15 road ledger.
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The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.
While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.
For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.
1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.
2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.
How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.
Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.
Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.
How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).
Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.
Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.
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