Time is now to eliminate head shots in hockey

Hockey Betting Lines

03/10/2010 - Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A concussion is serious, and the NHL may finally be waking up to the fact. Anyone who has had a serious knock will tell you that the effects can be scary. While the league has spent years dancing around the subject of hits to the head, it is an issue that has become more pressing than ever.

It makes you wonder if the suits in the front office have been suffering from the same confusion and blurry vision as the players who seem to be dropping like flies around the league.

Hockey's alleged top brains will be concluding a three-day summit Wednesday, where the topic of shoulder hits to the head is being discussed. As it stands, the shoulder blow is still a legal part of the game, meaning that no penalty can be assessed for the goon-like offense.

"The managers in their heart of hearts feel something's wrong here, but it's not against the rules. That's what we're trying to attack," said Colin Campbell, the NHL's principle disciplinarian.

Last Sunday, Boston Bruins all-star Marc Savard became the latest victim of an unsuspecting shoulder to the head by the Pittsburgh Penguins' Matt Cooke. Seeing him motionless on the ice was a troubling scene, but a scene that has been repeating itself like a bad Hollywood script.

Savard will likely be forced by team doctors to miss multiple weeks of action, as the medical community has made it clear they won't treat these injuries like a joke.

Young Florida Panthers sniper David Booth missed three-quarters of this season with medically diagnosed post-concussion syndrome, and was only allowed to play after rigorous baseline testing.

Boston Bruins center Patrice Bergeron can attest first-hand to the after- effects of a brain injury. A grade-three concussion almost stripped the young star of his career in October of 2007 as he ended up missing the better part of the season.

"I couldn't do anything. The light was bothering me, the noise was bothering me. Everything was," Bergeron said in reference to the concussion. "It was giving me headaches, making me dizzy."

"I was pretty much trying to go through the day, trying to sleep and rest and feel better."

Luckily Bergeron was able to get back on track after a long and difficult recovery. He was even fortunate enough to win Olympic gold with Team Canada in Vancouver.

But, not all players are so lucky.

It's no surprise that around the sport these hits are called "career-enders", just ask Eric Lindros.

Termed the "Next One" in the 90's, Lindros was supposed to be the second coming of Wayne Gretzky. A true superstar during his short NHL career, he would miss significant time due to concussions and eventually retire thanks to the elbow of bruiser Scott Stevens.

What did the powers that be tell us then? They said it was part of the game. They said it takes toughness to be a hockey player, like Eddie Shore and Bobby Clarke.

Sorry gentlemen, but the game is light years ahead of where it was back then. It's faster, more violent, and the players are stronger.

Players must be forced to respect the head and the only way to do that is to asses a penalty for the infraction. There should be, at minimum, a five-minute major and an ejection from the game for the dangerous blow. The same punishment has been effective in reducing hits from behind, and hits to the head are no less an epidemic.

It is embarrassing that the Canadian Hockey League (CHL), Canada's premier junior hockey organization, has already figured out a way to deter these dirty hits while the NHL has stood pat.

In doling out a season-long suspension in January to high-profile player Patrice Cormier for his blindside hit of a fellow player, the CHL sent a strong message that these types of plays would not be tolerated. Captain of the Canadian world junior team and Quebec Major Junior Hockey League standout, Cormier was not allowed to escape the rule of law due to his star status. The same hard-nosed approach must be taken in the NHL.

"Clearly the blind side of an unsuspecting player is what we're talking about," said Dallas Stars GM Joe Nieuwendyk. He also added that he thought stiffer suspensions could be used more frequently in extreme cases.

Unfortunately, any rule change proposed at the summit needs approval by the competition committee, which includes players, and the league's board of governors. Hopefully, the recommendations that are made don't fall on deaf ears.

It would be regrettable if another career was put in jeopardy before action was taken.

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How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

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